Analysis of Comparison between Three Capital Market: Indonesia, Taiwan andSpain

According to Fabozzi (2009), capital market is the sector of the financial market where long-term financial instruments issued by corporations and government trade. Here “long term” refers to a financial instrument with an original maturity greater than one year. 

History of Indonesia Capital Market

The capital market in Indonesia has actually existed long before the Independence of Indonesia. The first stock exchange in Indonesia was established on December 1912 in Batavia during the Dutch colonial era. At that time, the Exchange was established for the interest of the Dutch East Indies (VOC). In 1914 until 1918, Batavia Stock Exchange was closed during the World War I and then it re-opened in 1925. To develop the condition of capital market in Indonesia, government decided to establish new stock exchanges were in Semarang and Surabaya around 1930. In early 1939, due to political issues (World War II) the Stock Exchange in Semarang and Surabaya closed. This crisis condition caused closure action also followed by Jakarta Stock Exchange during 1942 – 1952. Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX) was re-closed during the World War II. Then after World War II, all of stock exchange was re-activated by the issue of the Capital Market Emergency Regulations 1952 by the Minister of Justice of Indonesia. The only product traded in the Exchange at that time was the Indonesian Government bond.

Because the problem of nationalism programs on Dutch’s companies by the Indonesian Government, Jakarta Stock Exchange became stagnant and government decided to close JSX again. This happened during 1956 – 1977. Then in Agustus 10, 1997, President Soeharto made Exchange reactive. It was supervised under the management of the Capital Market Supervisory Agency (Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal, or BAPEPAM). The re-activation of the capital market marked by the go public of PT Semen Cibinong as the first issuer listed in the JSX.

During 1977 until 1987, the activity of stock trading in JSX was dull. There were only 24 listed companies in JSX. It is caused capital market looked not interesting. Because of this condition, most Indonesia people preferred to invest their money in Banks rather than the Capital Market. Then in 1987, government issued PAKDES 87 (December Package 1987) to give ways for companies to go public and foreign investors to invest their money in Indonesia. This action was done as a response from the lack of the function of capital market in Indonesia. To support the previous action in 1988, Deregulations packages in Banking and Capital Market were made. JSX welcomed foreign investors. The activities of JSX were improving.

Trading activity and market capitalization grew alongside the development of Indonesia's financial markets and private sector - highlighted by a major bull run in 1990. On July 13, 1992, the exchange was privatized under the ownership of Jakarta Exchange Inc. As a result, the functions of Bapepam changed to become the Capital Market Supervisory Agency. On March 22, 1995 JSX launched the Jakarta Automated Trading System (JATS). In September 2007, Jakarta Stock Exchange and Surabaya Stock Exchange merged and named Indonesian Stock Exchange by Indonesian Minister of Finance.

Indonesia Capital Market Structure as regulated by Law No. 8 Year 1995 concerning Capital Market:

Indonesia as the biggest Muslim country in the world is holds an enormous market for the development of sharia finance industry. Sharia capital market, which is part of the Sharia finance industry, has an important role in increasing the market share of Sharia finance industry in Indonesia. History of Islamic Capital Market in Indonesia began with the issuance of Sharia Fund by PT. Danareksa Investment Management on July 3, 1997. Furthermore, Indonesia Stock Exchange (formerly Jakarta Stock Exchange) in collaboration with PT. Danareksa Investment Management launched Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) on July 3, 2000.

History of Taiwan Capital Market

The foundations of the Taiwan Stock Exchange were first begun in 1953, when the “land-to-the tiller” program was successfully initiated by the Nationalist government of the Republic of China. The land-to-the-tiller program encouraged large landholders on the island of Taiwan to sell off parcels of their land in exchange for government bonds and shares in government-owned enterprises. This enabled the government to allocate the land to tenant farmers and encouraged the former landholders to take on a new role as burgeoning capitalists. At the time, however, no formal stock or bond markets existed in Taiwan, so it was difficult for former landholders who wanted to raise cash to find investors willing to buy their shares at reasonable prices. In order to facilitate such trading, the Securities and Exchange Commission was established on September 1, 1960, and the Taiwan Stock Exchange (the “TSE”) was formed one year later, with operations beginning in 1962. The shares of 18 firms were listed on the TSE as of the end of its first year. Within the past decade, the number of listed firms has grown dramatically. The number of listed firms grew to 246 by December 1992 and had increased again to 331 companies, with a total face value of US$45.3 billion, by the end of September 1995.

Market infrastructure in Taiwan: The Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) is the primary equities market in Taiwan. TWSE was established in 1961, and has been the primary equities market in Taiwan. In addition to the TWSE, there are two other regulated markets, i.e.: the Gre-Tai Securities Market (GTSM) established in 1994, the market for bonds and small-and-medium sized enterprises (SMEs); and the Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX), the principal derivatives market in Taiwan. Established in 1998, TAIFEX is regulated by the Securities & Futures Bureau (SFB) of the FSC. Notwithstanding TAIFEX being the sole derivatives exchange in Taiwan, its quest for efficiency continues unabated.

Since 1987, there have been no restrictions on outward remittances for trade related transactions (imports or exports of goods and services). All dividend, profits, interest and principal can also be removed from the country without restrictions. Taiwanese corporations may remit abroad up to US$1 million per transaction without authorization. Any larger amounts must be approved by the Central Bank of China.

History of Spain Capital Market

There are 4 stock exchanges in Spain: Barcelone, Bilbao and Valencia. Bolsa de Madrid (Madrid Stock Exchange) is the largest and most international of Spain's four regional stock exchanges that trade shares and convertible bonds and fixed income securities, and both government and private-sector debt. Bolsa de Madrid is owned by Bolsas y Mercados Españoles. In 1809, Jose I Bonaparte attempted to establish Spain's first stock exchange in Madrid but it failed because Madrid was not a major business center at the time. 1831 saw the enactment of the law creating the Madrid Stock Exchange with securities of banks, railways and iron and steel companies being the first traded. The Exchange remained open during World War I, but closed during the Spanish Civil War from 1936 through early 1940. The Spanish Stock Exchange was transformed in 1988 with Spain's incorporation into the European Monetary System. In 1993, the Madrid Stock Exchange switched to all-electronic trading for fixed-income securities. In 1999 Spain's securities markets began trading in Euros. Its regulatory body is the Spanish Stock Exchange Commission. As required by Spanish law, it is managed and operated by the Sociedad Rectora de la Bolsa de Valores de Madrid S.A., a corporation organized under the laws of the Kingdom of Spain.

One of Spain's four other major securities exchanges is Barcelona stock exchange. Established in 1915 during the industrial boom and coinciding with the emergence of the region's first corporations, the Barcelona Stock Exchange (in Spanish, the Bolsa de Barcelona) trades warrants, ETFs, public debt, Latin American stocks and more, using both computer-assisted trading and open-outcry floor trading.

Comparison between Stock Exchanges:

Indonesia Stock Exchange

In Indonesia, there is Jakarta Stock Exchange (JKSE). The system integrates trading, clearing and settlement, and depository and broker accounting functions. Shares can trade in round lots or odd lots. On the regular market, trading takes places in round lots of 500 shares. Block trading odd lot trading and cross trading occurs in a negotiated market separate from the negotiated market separate from the regular market. Cross trading occur when there is a matching purchase and sale order by the same broker acting for different customers. Trading takes place from 9:30 A.M. to 12:00 noon (session I) and from 1:30 P.M. to 4:00 P.M. (Session II). Transaction generally follow a T+3 settlement cycle. The Capital Market Executive Agency (Bapepam) regulates the stock market. It has three principal responsibilities: approving new listing, supervising the capital markets and monitoring listed companies.

Besides that Indonesia has other type of stock called sharia stock. The selection criteria of sharia stocks are based on Bapepam-LK Regulations No II.K.1 concerning Criteria and Issuance of Sharia Securities List, item 1.b.7. The regulation states that Securities in the form of shares, including sharia rights and sharia warrant, issued by Issuer or Public Company who does not declare that its business activities and management are conducted based on Sharia Principles.

Besides stock these instruments below can be traded and has been and or reported the trading through Indonesia Stock Exchange:

1.Corporate Bonds is Bond issued by National Private Company, including BUMN and BUMD.

2.Government Bonds is Bonds Issued by the Government in accordance with Law No. 22 Year 2002, including: State Bond (Including Bond Retail/ORI) and Treasury Bills (T-Bills).

3.Corporate Sukuk is a Fixed Income instruments are issued based on Sharia principles in accordance with Bapepam-LK Rule No. IX.A.13 concerning Sharia Securities. Corporate Sukuk Revenue based on contract contained in Bapepam-LK rule concerning Contracts used in Sharia Securities Contract.

4.State Sharia Securities/SBSN or Corporate Sukuk is Securities issued by the Government based on Sharia in accordance with Law No. 19 Year 2008 concerning Government Sharia Securities (SBSN).

5.Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) is Debt Securities issued with underlying assets as the basis.

Taiwan Stock Exchange:

Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSCE) is not large, it is quite active. The annual turnover value ranks high internationally. In the peak of the market in late 1990s, the annual turnover value of TSCE was just lower than that the New York Stock Exchange but substantially higher than that of other stock exchange. The trading hours at the Taiwan Stock Exchange are from 9:00 A.M. to 1:30 P.M. At the opening of each trading day, a call market sets the opening price to maximize the trading volume. After the opening, a continuous auction is in place until the end of trading day. To maintain stability, the daily change has maximum limit of 7 percents from the previous closing price. For bonds, the limit is 5 percents. 

As in most emerging markets, the government bond sector account in Taiwan for most of the fixed-income market. The corporate bond is relatively small. As a result, insurance companies and banks prefer the safety of foreign bonds. By far the biggest purchasers of corporate bonds are local bonds funds which buy and hold the bonds until maturity. This practice is a major reason that the secondary bond market in Taiwan is very limited. Corporate bonds are subject to a 0.1% transaction fee. Also unpopular is the practice of dividing bond issues into small tranches. The bond funds purchases these as an entire block, thereby again stifling any secondary market liquidity. In recent years, due to the slump in the stock market, investor have purchased large sum of corporate bonds. However, trading in secondary market is still not active.

Spain Stock Exchange

The Madrid Stock Exchange General Index (IGBM) is the exchange's principle index and represents the construction, financial services, communications, consumer, capital/intermediate goods, energy, and market services sectors. The IBEX-35 Index is a capitalization-weighted index comprising the 35 most liquid Spanish stocks traded in the continuous market, and is Bolsa de Madrid's benchmark. Bolsa de Madrid also offers the FTSE-Latibex Index, a European market for Latin American stocks. The Ibex New Market Index, for emerging companies, was offered from 2000 to 2007.

The Spanish market is an electronic market that interconnects directly the four Spanish stock exchanges (Madrid, Barcelona, Bilbao and Valencia) through the Stock Exchange Interconnection System (SIB), and that assures one single liquidity point per security in real time. The Spanish market can be characterized as an order-driven system, with the existence of some liquidity providers on some stocks (specialists).

Trading in the market is divided in three large segments as a function of the type of product that traded on them:

1.equities and subscription rights,

2.warrants, certificates and other products, and

3.exchange traded funds.

Settlement is T + 3. Trading on SIBE is conducted from 9 a.m. to 5:30 p.m.; open outcry from 10a.m. to 11:30 a.m., both Monday through Friday. As required by Spanish law, it is managed and operated by the Sociedad Rectora de la Bolsa de Valores de Madrid S.A., a corporation organized under the laws of the Kingdom of Spain.

Analysis of Stock Return and Volume

 

According to historical data of stock of Jakarta Stock Exchange, the standard deviation is 0.394%. During 5 years, if compared with the two others, JKSE is stock market that has biggest risk.  But it is followed by biggest average weekly positive return for 0,487% than others stock market.  The gain that received by investors in JKSE is relatively high.  Based on TSCE data, the standard deviation is 0.173%, it means most company that include in TSCE also has lowest risk for investment than in JKSE and Madrid stock exchange. Because Taiwan stock exchange has the lowest risk, it is also followed by the smaller return than other during 5 years (July 2006 until March 2011). The other result from SMSI showed that standard deviation is 0.364%, it is greater risk than Taiwan but produced smaller return than Taiwan. It is happened because the movement of stock price is Madrid is quite volatile (see the graph of return). In November 2008 until January 2009, the return of Madrid showed the high number of negative return. It is caused the positive average return for 5 years is smaller.

The next looking from the volume of the trade, we can compare between the three stock markets and the biggest volume is owned by Jakarta Stock Exchange for 1,806,621,415. From the graph, we can see that the movement of trade volume is very fluctuating in Jakarta Stock Exchange. It proved that the reactions of investor in Jakarta Stock Exchange is very aggressive compared with Taiwan Stock Exchange and Madrid Stock Exchange. Started to May 2009, the trade volume of stock in Jakarta Stock Exchange began to develop. This proved that the stock market in Indonesia is interesting for global investors because the stock is more liquid.

It is different from the movement of trade volume of Taiwan Stock Exchange and Madrid stock Exchange. TSEC tends to be stable during 5 years (July 1, 2006 until March 31, 2011). It shows that the trade of stock in Taiwan is not too affected with the other factors such as economic and politic or there is no shocking event that caused volatility. For Madrid Stock Exchange, the movement of trade volume is better than TSEC. It is because the trade volume is volatile that shows the attractiveness of stock market.

Relationship among Stock Market 

With the significance level for 5% the statistic table gives value of t = 1.96973. If looking from the constant. Since t_h = 1.903 was in the area "Ho is supported" (t_h < 1.96973), it means that b₀ is not significant. Mathematically be expected when the capital markets in Taiwan and Spain not do trading so in the Indonesia market return also equal to zero.

Next looking from t-ratio of TSEC as independent variable, Since t_h= 7.152 > 2.04841 then Ho is not supported, then b₁ significant. It means that between Jakarta Stock Exchange and Taiwan Stock Exchange has relationship. It can be said that when other variables market return of Madrid Stock Exchange has constant, and if Taiwan stock exchange increased by one unit then the JKSE would increase by 0.5374 units. Mathematically it can be concluded that the larger market return of TSEC will also make higher value of market return of JKSE when assuming the other variables fixed.

Looking from, t-ratio of Madrid Stock Exchange, since t_h = 2.647are in the area "Ho is not supported" (th > 2.05553) so b₂ significant. This means between Jakarta Stock Exchange and Madrid Stock Exchange has relationship. In other word MSEC significantly affect the movement of stock price in JKSE. Regression coefficient for the market return in MSEC is at 0.16997. Mathematically it can be expected if the value of market return in MSEC increases by one amount then the return in JKSE increases by 0.16997 units assuming other variables remain valuable. Based on t-ratio, we can conclude that JKSE and TSEC had stronger relationships than MSEC. It is because the value of t-ratio is bigger for 7.152. It can be happened because JKSE and TSEC located in one region: ASIA. The location caused the relationship between the stock exchange is stronger because there are so many similar factors that will influence both of them. It is different if we compared the t-ratio between JKSE and MSEC that only 2.647. Although both of these stock market has relationship but it is in smaller significance. It is because between JKSE and MSEC located in different region: JKSE in Asia and MSEC in Europe.

The next, we will discuss the relationship of the three stocks exchange in one way. With significance level for 5% the statistic table gives value of f = 3.03282. Since F_h = 48.08988 > 3.03282, it is means the null hypothesis (Ho) is not supported. This means that the three of stock exchange has relationship because the movement of TSEC and MSEC has significance impact of stock’s price movement in JKSE. It is natural because in global economy, the stock exchange around the world is interrelated. Besides that we can see from the graph of return of three stock markets that shows the same pattern of stock price movement. Generally when the stock price in Jakarta Stock Exchange increased, stock price in Madrid and Taiwan stock exchange also increased.  

The relationship between the third markets can be proved in term of market index.  Below is the capital market index for last 5 years in end of the year:

The relationship between the third markets can be proved in term of market index.

From the table, we can see from the three capital markets have same growth pattern. From 2005 until 2007, the third markets have positive growth of market capitalization but then after 2007, the market capitalization of three markets were fall. It happened because of the impact from global financial crisis in 2007.

 CONCLUSION

Each capital market in different country or region has their own characteristics and regulation that must be allowed by investors. Each of them will have different instrument that make them interesting for investor. Because of that every capital market also not always consists by the same financial product. But basically, capital market around the world is important for the companies around the world because they provide a way to the companies to collect finance to operate their businesses. These markets also provide the liquidity option to the shareholders to pay back the shares to take money out of the market.

In the fact, although the capital markets have differentiation but they always interrelated. It can be happened because of the condition of global economy that will be influence all of financial activities around the world. It proved by the case of financial crisis in 2007 that appeared in U.S. Actually the impact not only influence condition of capital market in U.S. but also capital market around the world include Indonesia, Taiwan and Spain.

Analysis of Closing Price and Business Portfolio of Lippo Karawaci Tbk.

COMPANY PROFILE

History of the Lippo Group began when Mochtar Riady (Lie Mo Tie) bought some shares of Bank Perniagaan Indonesia's that owned by Haji Hashim Ning in 1981. At that time, Mochtar was important positions in Bank Central Asia (BCA), the bank that established by the family of Liem Sioe Liong. In the BCA Mochtar gain share at 17.5% stake. The asset of BCA when Mochtar joined is only Rp12.8 billion. In late 1990, when Mochtar out of BCA, the bank's assets above Rp5 trillion. In 1987, after he joined with Indonesian Commerce Bank’s assets have soared to more than 1,500 percent to Rp 257.73 billion. This situation impressed national banking system. He also dubbed as "The Magic Man of Bank Marketing”. Two years later, this bank merged with Bank Umum Asia, and after that Lippobank was born. This is the embryo of the Lippo Group.

“Lippo Karawaci” was initially founded on a vision to impact lives through the development of well-planned sustainable townships with green environments and first class physical and social infrastructure. Lippo Karawaci Group is a merger of 8 property related companies in 2004. Now became Indonesia’s largest listed property company with a portfolio that comprises six strategic business units (SBUs) following:

1. Urban development

2. Large scale integrated development

3. Retail malls

4. Health care

5. Hotels, leisure and infrastructure

6. Property and Portfolio Management.

Shareholder structure of Lippo Karawaci Tbk:

 

  

ANALYSIS OF COMPANY STOCK RISK AND MARKET RISK

Analysis of Stock Return

Every day and hour the price of stock will change, it happened because every day the company’s stock does trading. For example: closing price (Jan 8) is Rp500 than the next day the value of that investment had appreciated to Rp520 that means investor get capital gain for Rp20 per share. In other word, if the investor invested their money in Jan 8 then the next day they will get return (gain) of 0.04% from the money that they invest (if they sell). Looking from the data, we know that Lippo Karawaci Tbk has closing stock price around Rp400 until Rp690 per stock from January 2, 2010 until October 30, 2010. This range will become the risk for investors. The movement of stock price in that range will cause gain or loss for investor in term of return. As a consequence, investors must pay attention with history of closing price to make a good investment. The good news is the Lippo Karawaci’s investors face “low unsystematic (company stock) risk”. It’s because the principle:  the low risk is lower return.

 The result of average closing stock price is 0.00136. This average of stock price mean that if the investors make an investment in Lippo Karawaci’s stock during Jan 2 until October 30, 2010 they will get gain for 0.00136 or 0.136%. In other word for 100% investment, investors will get gain for 0.136%. Although this is the small number of return but this stock is good for make “save portfolio investment” because the company stock risk is low. The investors will not get loss to much if they make an investment in Lippo Karawaci, Tbk.

According to historical stock of Lippo Karawaci, the standard deviation is 0.02812. It means company stock is less volatile, so it has low risk of investment. Investors which are preferred to avoid bigger risk can invest their money in this company. It can be happened because the movement of stock price in Lippo Karawaci is not too narrow. The gain and losses that received by investors is relatively small. The conclusion is Lippo Karawaci Tbk has low risk even though the return of the stock that the will be gain by investor is also low.

Analysis of Market Return

In order to make an investment, investors face two kind of the risk that are company stock (unique risk) and market index (systematic risk). This part is concern in systematic risk that represented by composite index. This risk occurs because of macroeconomics events beyond the company's activities, such as inflation, recession and etc. This movement of composite index will be the risk of investors. Example: closing index Rp2586.9 (Jan 7) and the next day being Rp2614. It means from the 7 until 8 January, the market stock has positive movement that will be give gain for investor. In other word, if the investors invest their money in Jan 7, they will get gain of 0.011 or 1.1% from the 100% money that they invest if they sell the stock in Jan 8. It is because mostly the parties in stock market has positive movement that influenced by the macroeconomics condition.

To be other consideration, the average rate of daily market return is 0.00178 or 0.178%.  It means that during Jan 2 until October 30, 2010, market stock tend to be stable (not in aggressive fluctuation condition) because the range of movement that presented by return is not long. In other word, during that period, macroeconomics condition in Indonesia is good. This condition gives advantage for investors because the systematic risk that they face is low because the stock market is tend to be stable. It is a good timing for investors decide to make portfolio investment in stock market.

Another measurement of market risk is standard deviation. From the calculation in appendix, the result of standard deviation from market return is 0.01288 or 1.288%. It means the market index is less volatile, so it produced low risk of investment during that period. Investors which are preferred to avoid bigger risk can invest their money at that time. It can be happened because the movement of closing market index is not too narrow. The bigger amount of standard deviation is the higher risk rate. We can concluded that the risk of Lippo Karawaci Tbk is higher than market index because the standard deviation of Lippo Karawaci’s return (0.02812 – 2.812%) is around twice than Composite Index. In other word, the stock of Lippo Karawaci is riskier compare with composite index.

Analysis of Beta of Company Stock

Systematic risk that usually denoted by beta (ß) which shows the size of the stock return sensitivity to market return. Beta value is use as a measure of the sensitivity of the stock return to a condition in which the impact is felt by all companies. The greater sensitivity of a stock returns on a systematic risk, the greater number of the stock beta. The result of the beta is 00.497 (less than 1). This means that for each increase of 1 in X, the mean value of Y is estimated to increase by 0.497. In other word, for each increase or decrease of 1% of return in the market, the values of stock return are estimated to increase or decrease by 0.497%.

It proved that Lippo Karawaci’s stock is a defensive stock because the result of beta smaller than 1. The returns of these stocks vary less than one-for-one with market returns. Defensive stock tends to remain stable under the fluctuation of economic conditions. As a result, the risk of Lippo Karawaci’s investors is lo because the range of fluctuation is not too long. It proved that Lippo Karawaci’s is a low-risk product of investment. The consequence, return that get by investors also not too big (movement of the stock tend to be stable in certain range). Based on the type of stock, Investor that likes to use defensive investment strategy can choose Lippo Karawaci’s stock as a part of their portfolio. So the investors can minimize the risk (losses) of losing capital investment.

Factors that Influence Fluctuation of Stock Return and Market Return

Based on the stock and market return, there are internal and external factors of company that influence the movement both of them. Internal factors come from the performance of company itself and external factors come from the whole economic condition in Indonesia. Internal factors consist of factors such as growth of assets, dividend policy, liquidity ratio (Cash Ratio, Cash Flow Ratio, Return on Asset, Net Profit margin), profitability ratio (ROE, EPS), the debt ratio. Whereas the external factors are including economic condition in general, inflation rate, tax, condition of stock exchange, and demand of stock. Let we discuss it one by one.

There are some movements of Lippo Karawaci’s stock that give the big capital gain for investor. From the table of stock and market return (in the next page), we can see three significant growth of return in company stock. Those are closing prices in September 21, October 5 and October 20, 2010. In September 21, the closing price of Karawaci’s stock increase from the last day for Rp40 per share from Rp540 to Rp570. In other word, the investors will get capital gain for 7.546% from the all of the money that they invest in Lippo Karawaci’s stock when they sell the stock at that time. The factor that influences this positive movement of company stock is profitability ratio.

In October 4, 2010, PT Lippo Tbk announced a dividend of Rp50 billion or Rp2, 88 per share to shareholders. The shareholder will receive this amount of dividend on 1 December. This is in accordance with new dividend policy of Lippo Karawaci that announced in September. Company will pay a final dividend and interim regularly for 25-30 percent of net income or the amount is equivalent with a yield for 1-2 percent. The total of interim dividend distributed today is equivalents with a yield of 1.6 percent a year, based on stock price LPKR for Rp560/ share on October 19, 2010. Lippo’s new dividend policy and recommendation of dividend payment is approved by holders of bonds on October 5. It is one factor that caused the closing price in 5 October increased from Rp600 to Rp650. It shows that the new dividend policy that gives advantage for investor will stimulate them to make stock portfolio of Lippo Karawaci. This increasing of stock price gave positive return (capital gain) for 0.008333 or 8.333%.

The next are external factors that influence market return such as investor confidence, political factors, and the current state of the economy all affect the stock market. Companies that do not violate regulations are also attractive. Taxes also have implications on the markets. When there is a rise in dividend tax, this will discourage investors from holding stocks that pay dividends. If capital gains tax rises, investors will seek to take the capital elsewhere. War or Terrorism/Natural Disaster: These types of events cause general investor panic, regardless of what the stock value may be on paper, if everyone wants to hide their money under a mattress the stock price will fall. The rationale for the relationship between the interest rate and stock market return is that stock prices and interest rates are negatively correlated. Higher interest rate ensuing from monetary policy usually negatively affects stock market return. This is because higher interest rate reduces the value of equity as stipulated by the dividend discount model, makes fixed income securities more attractive as an alternative to holding stocks, may reduce the propensity of investors to borrow and invest in stocks, and raises the cost of doing business and hence affects profit margin. On the contrary, lower interest rates resulting from expansionary monetary policy boosts stock market.

Because the number of beta of Lippo Karawaci is less than 1, it means that the company is not sensitive with the economic condition. The factors that most influence the stock return came from the internal factors that was purpose to increase the value of company. The movement of Lippo mostly is caused by the internal activity such as sales, pay dividend and etc. In other side, because of the number of standard deviation of Lippo Karawaci is bigger than composite index; it is caused the fluctuation of company stock return in Lippo Karawaci is more aggressive than the movement of market index. During January 2 until October 30, 2010, the condition of economic in Indonesia is stable; as a consequence the movements of stock market also tend to be stable. Looking from the graph of stock and market return, we can see that there is longer range of stock return than market return. It can be concluded that the movement of Lippo Karawaci’s stock most influenced by the internal activity of company than the general economic condition. It makes the company’s stock tend to be aggressive than stock market which is stable in that period.   

ANALYSIS OF COMPANY BUSINESS PORTFOLIO USING BCG MATRIX 

Strategic Business Units of Lippo Karawaci:

Revenue and EBITDA:

BCG Matrix:

Healthcare include in Stars because it is SBU that can give big revenue for company because the market share of this SBU is big. In another side, healthcare also has a big number in spending because the rate of market growth is higher. It can be proved by the proportion of revenue for 32% from 100% revenue is decreasing become 19% (after minus by expenses). In reality, to operate healthcare institution must needed a huge amount of money because of the technology that must be applied. If healthcare SBU can maintain a large market share, it will be “cash cow” when the decline in market growth rate. Portfolio of diversified companies should have a star that will become the next generation of dairy cows to ensure future cash. Lippo Karawaci proved it by provide healthcare business unit as their future cash cow.

Large scale integrated development, urban development and hotel and hospitality are strategic business unit that include in “Cash Cow”. As a leader in a mature market, these three SBUs have greater return on assets than market growth rates that related with spending. As a result, they can generate revenue than their consumption. From the graph, we can see that proportion of revenue and EBITDA of these three SBUs have a big proportion after decreasing by the expenses. Cash cow provides cash needed to change the question marks into market leaders, cover administrative costs the company, fund research and development, service the company's debt, and pay dividends to shareholders. Looking from the business portfolio of Lippo Karawaci, company has a good decision in making business portfolio. Most of their SBUs are success to maintain in Cash Cow position that will give advantage for development of company. Then, it will influence their position and condition of their stock price. If the company has reached this stage, it is means that the entire market share has almost mastered and its growth had been stagnant. Lippo Karawaci can only keep by doing maintenance so that production and operation can be stabilized. Furthermore, companies should think again to release new products, in order to make market is not saturated. 

The next is that retail malls that include in “question mark”.  Retail malls are growing rapidly (it proved that Lippo Karawaci has 24 malls) and thus consume large amounts of money. But because retail malls has low market shares, it do not generate much money (only 3% from the whole of revenue). The result is a net consumption of big cash. Retail mall has the potential to gain market share and become a star, and finally cash cow when the market growth slows. Lippo karawaci need to do aggressive advertisement, commercial event or make interesting program for this SBU to increase the market share. But if a retail mall does not succeed as the market leader, perhaps years later after cash consumption, it will turn into a dog when the market growth declined. Lippo Karawaci must be analyzed carefully to determine whether they need more investment or not to increase market share.

The last is property and portfolio management that include in “Dog” stage. It is because property and portfolio management has low market share (only 5%) and low growth rate. It does not produce or consume large amounts of cash. The amount of EBITDA is 12% it is increasing after reduce by the expenses. It means that the number of expenses is too small. However, property and portfolio management are cash traps because the money tied up in businesses that are less potential. This strategic business unit is candidates for divestiture.

After done with BCG analysis, we can conclude that the business portfolio of Lippo Karawaci Tbk. is good. It is because they success to maintain their most of strategic business unit in “Cash Cow” stage that will give good impact for company in term of company value. Directly, it will be influence the growth of stock of Lippo Karawaci.

CONCLUSION

Investors always wants to make an efficient portfolios which is defined as portfolios that provide the greatest expected return with certain risk or provide the  smallest risk to the certain level of return. If an investor wants to form a portfolio, the investor should really analyze it appropriately. Lippo Karawaci Tbk is the good selection of the stock for investors who prefer not high risk. Investors also must pay attention with history of closing price to make a good investment. Because the movement of closing price tend to be stable, its means the return that will be obtains by investor is not big. The good news is the Lippo Karawaci’s investors face “low unsystematic (company stock) risk”. It’s because the principle:  the low risk is lower return. The result of average closing stock price is 0.00136. It can be happened because the movement of stock price in Lippo Karawaci is not too narrow. The conclusion is Lippo Karawaci Tbk has low risk even though the return of the stock that the will be gain by investor is also low. To be other consideration, the average rate of daily market return is 0.00178 or 0.178%.  It means market stock tend to be stable (not in aggressive fluctuation condition). From the calculation in appendix, the result of standard deviation from market return is 0.01288 or 1.288%. It means the market index is less volatile, so it produced low risk of investment during that period. Investors which are preferred to avoid bigger risk can invest their money at that time. We also can concluded that the risk of Lippo Karawaci Tbk is higher than market index because the standard deviation of Lippo Karawaci’s return (0.02812 – 2.812%) is around twice than Composite Index. The stock of Lippo Karawaci is riskier compare with composite index.  But, this is also will influence the amount of return that get by investors. The higher risk will get higher return.

The result of beta proved that Lippo Karawaci’s stock is a defensive stock because the result of beta smaller than 1. The returns of these stocks vary less than one-for-one with market returns. As a result, the risk of Lippo Karawaci’s investors is low because the range of fluctuation is not too long. The consequence, return that get by investors also not too big (movement of the stock tend to be stable in certain range). After looking from the stock’s side, the last we do analysis of BCG that proved business portfolio of Lippo Karawaci Tbk. is good. It is because they success to maintain their most of strategic business unit in “Cash Cow” stage that will give good impact for company in term of company value specially to gain revenues. Directly, it will be influence the growth of stock of Lippo Karawaci.

Generally, we can conclude that Lippo Karawaci Tbk is a good company for make an investment in stock market as a “safety portfolio”. It also supported by the good decision of business portfolio that adding value for company performance to attract investor for make investment in their stock.

Business Risk of UD Berdikari Meubel

COMPANY PROFILE

At the first time, UD Berdikari Meubel was established in 1975 at Laksda Adisucipto street km. 7 Tambakbayan Babarsari Yogyakarta. The founder is Mr. Ignatius Supomo. Then in 1984, the head office and store moved at Jl. Laksda Adi Sucipto km. 8 Rejowinangun Maguwoharjo Yogyakarta, while the company’s production facility is located in Kadirojo Sambisari Kalasan. UD Berdikari Meubel is a producer and seller of furniture. Until now, the company has 2 branches, the first branch named Sami Berdikari and the second branch named Berdikari Makmur.

Over the past decade, Company has built a series of key relationship with other furniture companies. For example, Berdikari partner with Airland, Ligna, and Quantum to fulfill the needs of spring bed. Besides that, the company also has relationship with other national furniture company such as Olympic and Expo that supply many kinds furniture. Company is serving both the regional and inter-regional area such as Sumatera and Bengkulu.

ANALYSIS

Business of UD Berdikari Meubel

UD Berdikari Meubel which particularly focuses in service and product sales of furniture industry already has organizational structure. Management structure is not a department-shaped structure, but it is still run by individuals. Below is a chart of organizational structure:

Any decisions related to finance, marketing and sales are still decide by the owner. Meanwhile, vice from the owner is his wife who has authority to decide expenditures. So the vice has two roles following replacing the owner in certain condition and managing circulation of money within company. There is a difference task between administration and treasurer. Administrative division only has job to record the total spending and income in paper while the decision to spend money will be directly handed by the treasurer.

For goods that are ready for sale, Company get from two ways. The first way, company does the production process. The production process consists of several step following cutting, forming, and finishing. For wood supply, Berdikari has been entrusted to the state forestry or called “Perhutani” which has a legal permit for timber harvesting. While the production stage performed by company’s employees of production division. Company also conducted second way that is supply of furniture from major manufacturers such as Olympic and Expo. Not only order furniture, but also spring bed from other large suppliers. Berdikari Meubel will order the products that they want from the supplier and it will be requisitioned as store displays.

UD Berdikari Meubel that primarily serving furniture market in Yogyakarta, has three fleets to deliver order product to customer. Each fleet will has responsible for the goods that they deliver, so consumers will get the product in the best condition. But also serve consumer from other region, company do not close possibility to send the goods out of Yogyakarta region.

    Looking from the financial aspect, Berdikari Meubel tries to make smart financing decision by setting debt around 20% and 80% equity.  20% of the debt already includes of display items that placed by supplier in the shop. Percentage of debt is not in large amount; it is because a large amount of debt would give greater risk to the company.

Identifying and Manage Furniture Risk

If company really knows about the difference between risk and uncertainty, then company will be able to identify risks that they face. UD Berdikari Meubel also faces market risk that related with business of furniture. There are risks that faces by Berdikari Meubel that influence by external factors:

1. Economic: economic turmoil will affect the level of demand for furniture. For instance, the economic turmoil that occurred during the monetary crisis in 1997. It is make the amount of company’s sales decreased in massive quantities. Other cases occurred when oil prices soared in 2005. The amount of profit declined by the increasing cost of production. There is no action that can be taken to prevent the decline of demand. The solution is Berdikari tries to increase the number of sales with the promotion and exhibition of furniture to cover the losses suffered during the crisis.
2. Legal/regulatory: law violation is hampering the business of company.  Berdikari Meubel is conducting his business in accordance with applicable law in Indonesia.  has to legalize the business by Trade Business License or “Surat Ijin Usaha Perdagangan” (SIUP), Company Registration Number or “Tanda Daftar Perusahaan” (TDP), and disturbance permits or “Ijin Gangguan”. Moreover, for suppliers of wood, Mr. Pomo have been entrusted to Perhutani that has licensed for logging. For business taxes, company hires someone who has potential or superiority term of tax issues. That’s all done by company as a precaution from legal/ law sanctions.
3. Political trends: political changes will automatically affect the condition of economy so it also will give effect to the company. For example, politic policy that set by SBY in Indonesia to increase the price of oil. Indirectly, that politic policy made the price raw material and other material of production increased. Then it gave impact to the revenue of company because the cost of product higher than before.   
4. Technological: use new technologies will not always be profitable. This condition felt by Berdikari in term of transactions record. Companies decided to use traditional recording without computerization until now. This decision applied because when company tried to use computerization system for transaction record, company lost the data because of technical problems (error). Fortunately, the company still has back-up of data in manual transactions record.
5. Environmental: natural disaster caused the company suffering physical loss financially. There are many thing form of natural disaster such as flood, fire, windstorm, etc. Natural disaster such as an earthquake that occurred in 2006 is also an example of risk factors that derived from the organization external environment and these factors cannot be predicted.  Berdikari Meubel only can minimize the risk of damage due to natural disasters by construct the building accordance with operating standards that established in Indonesia. 
6. Socio-Cultural/ customer wants: missing customer because company late to follow trend of home style. In the furniture industry, the growth of trend is very important. This is affect consumers' choice of furniture that will be purchased because form of furniture depends on the design of building. According to that condition, Berdikari Meubel always try to follow the change of market trends by reading magazines, doing directly survey by observation or receive advice from employee and customers. Nowadays, market trend was referring to the minimalist design because of that UD Berdikari focus to provide products with simple designs to follow the minimalist trend.

Besides the risk above, there are risks that relating to existing operation that can control by company following: 

Delivery: the employee fault causes product can’t deliver on time. Error in delivery can be happen because of two things following accidents that caused by employees during the shipping time and delays due to scheduling. For both of reason, company deals with that condition by giving responsibility sanction against employees who make mistakes during the delivery process. So this way will minimize the personal error because the cost of damage in delivery time will guaranteed by employee.  

Capacity and capability 

• Resources: risks of resources can come from the financial sector, human resources, information and physical assets. Financial risk could be derived from income or expenditure of the company. The fault of record in financial term can be a negative risk for company. Because of that, company always tries to keep correct records on every transaction. In addition, all expenditures of money have been made by the representative of the owner who is his wife so that the control of the money circulation can be done directly. Besides that, Berdikari also realized about the risk of debt. According to that condition, UD Berdikari decided to financing company by using only 20%. If looking from human resources point of views, the recruitment system handled directly by the owner which has experience more than 30 years in furniture business. So that company can find employees who match with the owner’s criteria. Berdikari Meubel believed that good recruitment will affect the performance of company.
• Relationship: threat to commitment to relationship with supplier and customer. Maintain good relationships with suppliers and customers are very important because they provide advantages for the company. Because of that reason, the company always makes an effort to keep commitments with customers and suppliers. Keep payments on time can be good way to maintain good relationships with suppliers. While for the relationships with consumers, company always tries to serve good service in term of sales and delivery. UD Berdikari Meubel has slogan "2S" (Selalu Senyum) or Always Smiling. This is one way of company to make consumers feel more appreciated.
• Operations: problems in the production process led to decrease quality of products. The quality of furniture is strongly influenced by the production process so that Berdikari Meubel gives attention to each stage of production that is performed. For instance, furniture will have a long durability, if the “oven” process is done well. Because the “oven” process will affect the moisture content of wood which is give impact to the durability of products. Finishing process also becomes very important because it determines the final outcome of products. 
• Reputation: bad management of business caused the company loss the trust of stakeholders. Stakeholders in the company are not only a supplier that distributes furniture but also consumers, employees, suppliers of raw materials, and the government. Company must be able to maintain the confidence of them by running business in the right way and accordance with the law. Berdikari Meubel is applying the principle of familiarity in the management. So they can build long relationship with stakeholder. Besides that, management control is also important concept that applying in the production process, delivery, and transaction so that all activities accordance with requirements. In addition, the action to safe the interest of residents around company is also very necessary. UD Berdikari makes a good waste disposal circulation as a one way to decrease environmental damage around the plant. 

Risk management performance and capability

• Scanning: Error in reading market conditions caused loss for company. The importance of determining the selling decision is largely influence by market conditions. The owner of Berdikari always tries to read the condition of market in the right way. For example, if closing from month of Ramadan, the company will perform exhibitions of furniture and give a discount for the products that will be sold. This is due to increasing of market demand for furniture in the month of Ramadan. This Opportunity is always successfully exploited by company. 

• Security: Loss of physical assets and corporate information can reduce the revenue. Physical assets and corporate information is very important for company. Loss of physical assets and financial information will affect financial of company.  Berdikari Meubel is very aware by this risk. To reduce the risk of loss from physical assets, Berdikari has division that must maintain the security of all assets. While, for important information such as financial and circulation of money, UD Berdikari makes it as a secret that only known by employees and owner.

The last category of risk comes from the risk that occurs when company makes decision to pursue new endeavors beyond current capability, following:

1. Change programs: develop the capacity of the company will increase the market risk. The decision of   to open two new branches will certainly increase the risks that face by company because the market capacity is also bigger than before. The owner of UD Berdikari Meubel realized about that condition so the management control still do centralized. The founder of company still do directly control for all activities that conducted in both branches. This action has purpose to keep the quality of product and performance of each branch.

"CONCLUSION"

UD Berdikari Meubel is a company that has good management of business risk. The company can make identification of risk that will give outcome in the future although the form is negative or positive. The ability to make identification is very important for company because it can provide information for ranking the importance of risk. Then the ranking will influence the company allocation of resources for managing and controlling the risk.
Looking from the way of UD  Berdikari Meubel manage risk, we can conclude that the company really knows about the kind of risks that will be faces in furniture industry because each type of industry will have different type of market risk. It is means that each industry also has different way to deal with market risk. And the last, the way of company manage the risk will affect the business that they do. 

REFERENCES

Keegan, Mary. 2004. The Orange Book: Management of Risk – Principles and Concepts. HM Treasury.
William, JR., Smith, Young. 1998. Risk Management and Insurance, Eleven Edition. McGraw Hill.  
Actuarial Society, Casualty. 2003. Overview of Enterprise Risk Management. (CRP)

The BIG HUG for: Administration division of UD Berdikari Meubel (Mba Gesti) that gave me opportunity to do interview ^^.

Owner's Profile

Complete name : Putu Ayu Govika Krisna Dewi
My friends called me Vika or Viko or Gex,.. You can call me anything according to those nicknames that my friends usually used. Like you know, now i continues my study in Faculty of Economics at Atmajaya Yogyakarta University . My student id number is 081217390.
I was born in Denpasar Bali on August 23, 1990. So I hope in that date you will give me gift. hehehe ^^
If you look at my name, you will know that I'm BALINESE,... Because of that, i love my island very much,.. 

I and my nuclear family have been already lived in Yogyakarta since fifteen years ago. All of my relatives live in Bali included my grandpa and grandma. I visits Bali twice a year. Right after this post is my family picture.

I have many hobbies, one of them is reading . But unfortunately, I prefer reading comics and novels than textbook. According to me, reading textbook is not enjoyable. The other hobby is shopping. I love shopping very much!!!! If I have money, i will go to the mall and doing window shopping. Usually my friends drop by with me. Would you like to join???????
My motto: try to LOVE what you are doing now.  

The Reasons I choose Financial Course

At the first time, I was confused about choosing the subject that I like. My father and mother gave me freedom to choose one of them. Then I asked my uncle, He suggested me to choose FINANCIAL course because according to him financial was a good course and many companies needed financial controller. The another reason, I choose financial course was I'm not good at memorize but I'm good in calculation. And also looking from the working area, I can easily apply to any job vacancy,..

Ok, that's all from me,.. THANK YOU ^^